I CAN SEE CLEARLY NOW (EVEN IF THE RAIN ISN’T GONE).

By Peter M. DeLorenzo

Detroit. "The Dog Days of Summer" doesn’t quite do justice to the sense of malaise that has descended around these parts. This is always the case after the Dream Cruise weekend (except for last year when it didn’t happen, of course -WG). With the last vestiges of corporate performance art – which made its return this year in the form of myriad displays, manufactured events and venue takeovers – having been removed, the only thing remaining are the imprints of countless streaks from the burning rubber, curling like black snakes up and down Woodward Avenue.

My big takeaway from the weekend? Despite the Lightning pickups and Mach-Es being wheeled by Ford operatives, and the Hummer EVs piloted by GMC execs (even Polestar made an appearance near Pasteiner’s) up and down The Strip, this EV thing has a long way to go. It doesn’t matter how fast EVs go (more on this in a moment), and it doesn’t matter how – allegedly – they will improve your life (the overpromising is being taken to ridiculous levels by certain manufacturers – yeah, you know who you are), the fact remains that the vast majority of the driving population is going to have to be sold on the merits of EVs. And it’s shaping up to be the most formidable marketing challenge the auto industry has ever seen. 

Yes, of course, range is a factor, and plugging in, and re-charging times, and on and on. But the real issue is price, and it will remain the issue for a half-decade to come, at least. It doesn’t help that the coming wave of EVs counts very few “affordable” entries among its ranks. Yes, there are some price leaders, but for the average consumer, EVs fall into the manufacturer “show pony” category. In other words, six-figure concept machines brought to life for a select few. And the manufacturers touting the fact that you can get one of their EVs well-equipped for around $60k, suggesting that makes them reasonably affordable? I got news for you: It doesn’t. And this will be a burgeoning issue that’s not likely to go away with a snap of a finger or a shiny happy PR campaign. 

And it also needs to be said that the Chevrolet Bolt recall for the replacement of batteries isn't helping matters when it comes to the adoption of EVs. In fact, it's a huge negative. LG battery issue aside, this is exactly the word-of-mouth news that is making the EV revolution a tough sell. Anytime you mention the words "fires" and "recall" in the same sentence, it's never good for the industry. And in this case, it's worse than that, because it casts a pall over the whole consideration set for EVs in general.

The other factor for a lot of people is the lack of noise from EVs. I didn’t have any problems in that regard with my Bolt, but my expectations were kept well in check and I was quite happy with it overall. But for a lot of people new to the category the lack of sound isn’t going to be a selling point. Instead, it’s going to be a liability. And despite the fact that synthetic audio overtures can be created for inside the vehicles – FYI: The one used in the Porsche Taycan is so lame that it’s borderline offensive – it’s not going to cut it in the least. And, if all that weren’t enough, let’s not forget that EVs are the biggest examples of “It Won’t Be Long Now!” going on the business right now. If manufacturers are touting 2022 with their EVs, you can go ahead and add eighteen months to that. I am not kidding. 2025 will finally see a (minimal) array of EV products in showrooms. Think about that for a moment, and then plan on enjoying your ICE vehicles for the rest of this decade.

I had to laugh when Dodge operatives promised that the next dimension of Dodge muscle will be electrified with great fanfare during the runup to the Dream Cruise. Why? Because the overwhelming high-performance cars of choice over the weekend were the legions of Challengers and Chargers running up and down Woodward. It wasn’t even close, in fact. They were like sharks parting the waters of the mundane with their classic V8 sounds that echoed far into the night. Yes, the purpose-built hot rods and drag cars were cool, but the fact that you can plunk your cash-ola down in a Dodge showroom and drive out with a 700HP beast has turned America’s streets and byways into teeming canyons of muscle car rapture. And it’s unlike anytime in automotive history too. These are the good old days. 

Back to those Dodge operatives. A word of warning: They can go ahead and create a Dodge EV muscle machine, but there is no way in hell it will eclipse their current crop of muscle cars. Why? Even though whatever they come up with will probably be the fastest thing they’ve ever offered, without that V8 sound it will be just another EV sewing machine to their faithful, no matter how much synthetic sound they plan to project from it. I sincerely hope they keep building their fantastic ICE muscle machines indefinitely, because they’re going to discover – no doubt the hard way – that the “brotherhood of muscle” isn’t going to come along for the EV ride.

Which reminds me – and I will be covering this in one of my future “Fumes” motorsport columns – but if the powers that be at the various manufacturers think that EVs will eventually takeover racing, they are sadly mistaken. Formula E has demonstrated unequivocally that without the visceral sounds associated with racing it’s just not racing, or, even more to the point, not racing that anyone but the bored and curious find the least bit interesting. 

The other reason for this languid sense of ennui hanging in the air like a fine gauze haze around here? It’s the fact that The Battle of the Missing Chips is not going away. In fact, I predict it will remain a major problem well into 2023. With Toyota finally acquiescing to its own Chip of Doom scenario – expected to lose an eye-watering 40 percent of its production in September – any notion that this chip “thing” can be portrayed as anything short of an unmitigated disaster is pointless. It is and has been, in fact, devastating.

I appreciate the boundless optimism being bandied about by some PR operatives right now, because it’s their job to do that. But the chip “thing” is crippling the auto industry, and the effects from this crisis will extend out at least a couple of more years. That is a crushing interlude in this business. 

But all of this has allowed me to see clearly now. The real Dawn of the EV Age is being pushed back to 2025 at the earliest, and it will unfold in fits and starts going on to 2030.

As for the Death of the ICE Age? Reports of its impending death are way premature. I expect the Twilight of the ICE Age to go on for another fifteen years at least. And the manufacturers that are able to hedge their bets while straddling both ends of the market will win out in the long run.

And that’s the High-Octane/Kilowatt Truth for this week.

Editor's Note: Click on "Next 1 Entries" at the bottom of this page to see previous issues. - WG