GM AND THE ART OF HEDGING.

Editor's Note: This week, Peter takes GM to task for its three steps forward, five steps back dance of mediocrity when it comes to hedging its bets on the "Grand Transition" to EVs. In On The Table, we take a look at the latest passionate masterpiece from Ferrari, the 12Cilindri Coupe and Spider. We also take another look at the Xiaomi SU7 - a car that blatantly rips-off the Porsche Taycan - being built in China, and how it's aeembled should put chills in automakers around the world. And our AE Song of the Week is "Stay (I Missed You)" by Lisa Loeb. In Fumes, Peter continues with Part V of his much talked about new series "The Racers" – this week featuring another all-time great,  Jackie Stewart. And finally, in The Line, we will feature the F1 results from Miami. We're on it! -WG

By Peter M. DeLorenzo

Detroit. If you’ve been a longtime reader of AE, you know some of the topics I’ve written about have endured over the years of doing this website. One topic in particular - the three steps forward, five steps back dance of mediocrity – has plagued this business as practiced here in the Motor City for the 25 years that we’ve been bringing you Autoextremist.com.

In a nutshell, the term applies to the rumbling, bumbling and stumbling cadence that has become part of the standard operating procedure in this town. And I don’t have to dig deep into the AE archives to give you an example of what I mean either. Just this past week, I’ve been reminded of how much the infamous “swirling maelstrom” (that other topic I’ve written about frequently) has come to define this business around these parts.

On the one hand, you had General Motors operatives touting the fact that they have a second Ultium battery cell production facility – in Spring Hill, Tennessee – up and running, and that this facility will supply cells to the Spring Hill Assembly plant, which builds the Cadillac Lyriq EV SUV. Not known for giving any news like this time to percolate up to real-time fruition, GM CFO Paul Jacobson told Wall Street types in a first quarter earnings call that GM would not only deliver on CEO Mary Barra’s promise of producing anywhere from 200,000 to 300,000 EVs in 2024, but that the company would make money on them in the second half of this year. This was due to lower costs for lithium and production efficiencies as the factories get up to speed. Cue Frau Farbissina from Austin Powers: Really?

Now, let me remind you just how far over her skis Ms. Barra was in promising that GM would be the industry leader in EVs in no time. She touted that GM’s EV commitment would mean that by 2024 GM would be churning out segment-leading EVs at a furious pace, and that the company would be transformed because of it. Needless to say, it didn’t quite work out that way. As I’ve stated previously, GM (as well as Ford) encountered massive problems along the way as the challenges multiplied. The search for raw materials that would go into the batteries became a constant hunt that simply had no end. And the massive cash suck required to fund costly EV R&D programs seemed to multiply exponentially by the day. On top of that, GM then had to repurpose existing manufacturing facilities and/or build all-new factories to assemble batteries and eventually build the EVs that they would soon be manufacturing.

But Ms. Barra was not shy about her predictions: Bullish pronouncements reigned, as the “promise” of EVs became the talk of the town: Cheaper to operate! Fewer moving parts, so much cheaper to build! The dawn of a brand-new era! Oh, this “transition” to EVs was going to be grand alright. And blah-frickity-blah, blah, blah.

The reality? Just now GM is actually building the Cadillac Lyriq with a modicum of frequency. But the other GM EVs promised are still just trickling out in fits and starts, so, 200,000 – 300,000 GM EVs by the end of this year? All together now: Right.

The chants of “It Won’t Be Long Now” (another one of our famous AE phrases) that are filling the air around these parts are so predictable that it isn’t even shocking anymore. All it takes is a little bit of good news for the torrent of optimism to be unleashed in this town, but to say it’s wildly premature is an understatement, especially when EV sales are suffering – ahem – a major league “adjustment.”

Barra & Co. made the conscious decision that they could just flip a switch and that this EV “thing” would come good (kind of like the politicians who mandated all of this). And that couldn’t have been more wrong. It seems that the lack of fundamental infrastructure, the inability to get the battery assembly up to speed, the exceedingly high prices and the fact that consumers weren’t even close to being sold on the efficacy of EVs presented a gigantic mountain to climb. And now, we’re expected to think that everything will be awesome because of a second Ultium battery cell plant coming online? Listen carefully, and you can hear the sound of one hand clapping.

The other famous prediction by Ms. Barra and other GM operatives – announced in 2021 – was that its Cadillac luxury division would be all-electric with no ifs ands or buts by 2030. That this “all-in” GM push into EVs would have the American driving public awash in super-competitive and desirable EVs by the start of the next decade, and that Cadillac would lead the way.

Hmm, well guess what? John Roth, the Cadillac brand chief, just commented to reporters last week that EV and ICE powertrains “will coexist for a number of years,” as reported by Automotive News.

Roth, of course, wouldn’t get specific on the division’s future powertrain plans for the end of the decade, but he did say that "we will be offering an all-electric portfolio by the end of the decade, and we will let the customer be our guide." In other words, Cadillac is going to be selling ICE vehicles for a long time to come.

That GM has launched the biggest “duh” of the year (so far at least) is no surprise. When a company like GM is practiced in the three steps forward, five steps back dance of mediocrity, this was to be expected. GM’s Barra has suddenly become an expert in the Art of Hedging. She and the rest of the industry better get used it. 

And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.

Editor's Note: Click on "Next 1 Entries" at the bottom of this page to see previous issues. - WG