THE PENDULUM SWINGS.

Editor's Note: This week, Peter returns to the auto wars after last week's Detroit Lions column, and talks about the pendulum swinging back from the "all-in on EVs" push to a more realistic path going forward, with hybrids coming back into focus as the formidable alternative. In On The Table we present a machine you don't see every day, the fantastic 1961 Porsche RS61, which will be "unobtanium" to all but a select few. And our AE Song of the Week is by The Big Bopper with his magnificent "Chantilly Lace." In Fumes, we bring you the next chapter in another of Peter's popular motorsports series with "The Muscle Boys, Part III." And finally, in The Line, Lewis Hamilton is going to Ferrari after this season, which is the quintessential definition of a Big Fu-King Deal. We're on it. -WG

By Peter M. DeLorenzo

Detroit. The swirling maelstrom continues unabated in the automobile business. The latest evidence? One minute the anticipation for a Brave New EV World is off the charts; the next minute we see that the backpedaling away from the “all-in on EVs” mantra has well and truly begun.

Just maybe a 100 percent EV target was not the smartest thing in the world, and just maybe the weak-kneed regulators/legislators in Washington, California and in other shiny happy parts of the country are beginning to understand that mandates are never a good thing and never work to the benefit of the consumer. Wait a minute, what am I thinking? The government types will never, ever learn that High-Octane Truth about mandates and such, because it’s what they do best, besides accomplishing absolutely zero in every other aspect of their “jobs.”

At any rate, the most highly visible backpedaling going on in the business as you read this is at General Motors, with CEO Mary Barra’s touchy-feely “fantasyland” mandate of “Zero Crashes, Zero Emissions, Zero Congestion” being shelved in favor of – you’ll never guess – a return to considering hybrids. This is so beyond ironic it isn’t even remotely funny. Why? GM had a truly exceptional hybrid in its extended-range EV, the Chevrolet Volt, and they killed it off deeming it expendable because, after all, EV nirvana was right around the corner. Dumb Move No. 1. Then, GM killed off the only real positive action it had in the EV space by “retiring” the Chevrolet Bolt, without any real cohesive plan to replace it. Dumb Move No. 2. After GM’s True Believers raised their hands and said, “Ahem, WTF are we doing?” cooler heads prevailed, and a plan was put into place to make GM’s advanced Ultium EV platform part of a new-generation Bolt, which is to miraculously reappear sometime next year.

In case you were wondering, these unfolding scenarios aren’t funny because GM has a long history of killing off/retiring vehicles just when they were actually reaching a point of developmental maturity and noteworthy overall performance. How this trend has continued throughout generations of regimes at GM is really one of the mysteries of this business, yet here we are.

While GM is performing an all-hands-on-deck pivot to resurrecting hybrid technologies throughout its product lineup, two companies in particular are basking in the glow of some seriously smart product plans: Honda and Toyota. These Japanese automakers have invested vast sums in hybrid technology and sprinkled it throughout their product portfolios. And it has paid off handsomely and continues to pay huge dividends in the market for these two automakers. Not to say it has been an easy road for these two auto companies by any means, as consumer tastes shifted back and forth between performance and economy. But the efficacy of hybrids – the exceptional real-world mileage without range limitations – has been proven time and time again. And with the latest multiple horror stories of EV motorists being stranded with dead batteries in the recent shot of brutally cold winter weather, hybrids have all of a sudden returned to the front burner of consumer consideration, as well they should.

Another sign the pendulum is swinging away from EVs? California has reported two down quarters in a row for EV sales, and this in a state that leads the nation in EV sales. Is it a trend? If it happens for a third straight quarter, I will be ready to say “yes.” In the meantime – speaking of mandates – we’re talking about a state that has a zero emissions mandate for all new cars sold by 2035. (I’d say the odds of that mandate sliding backward or being radically modified altogether are extremely high, much to the chagrin of certain enclaves in that state that won’t be happy until everyone has been forced into “driving” flatulence-powered balsawood clown cars.)

Still, with all of this going on, the massive Hyundai-Kia conglomerate is continuing its inexorable push into producing more and more EVs. I say good for them; that’s the company’s plan and it is sticking with it. Other manufacturers, like Audi, BMW, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz, are continuing to hedge their bets between ICEs, hybrids and EVs, because it’s the smart thing to do.

In the end – and I’ve said this repeatedly – EVs will be just one part of the transportation equation, along with hybrids, fuel cells, hydrogen fuel and hydrogen-powered fuel cells. Oh, and let’s not forget that one essential technology that refuses to go away and that continues to show radical improvements by the day: The Internal Combustion Engine. This just in: ICE vehicles will be part of the transportation equation for decades.

So, it’s clear with the pendulum swinging back from 100 percent EVs to hybrids and everything in-between that the manufacturers who anticipated that this EV thing might not go as planned are the ones who will be the best prepared to take advantage of the situation, whichever way it goes. 

The rest? Well, if they can’t get out of their own way, they better go ahead and just duck.

And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.

Editor's Note: Click on "Next 1 Entries" at the bottom of this page to see previous issues. - WG