Sunday
Dec152024
WISHFUL THINKERS, DELUSIONAL “IT WON’T BE LONG NOW!” DREAMERS, THE USUAL SPINELESS WEASELS AND ENOUGH “REGRETS AND APOLOGIES” TO PEG THE AE STUPID METER. YES, IT’S TIME FOR THE AUTOEXTREMIST YEAR IN REVIEW!
Sunday, December 15, 2024 at 07:54AM By Peter M. DeLorenzo
Detroit. Well, well, well, that was indeed special. Another momentous automotive year defined by a Kaleidoscope of Chaos. I keep waiting for a miracle when it comes to this business, that cooler heads will prevail and that the relentless two steps forward and five back dances of mediocrity will somehow fade from the playing field. Not a chance.
Needless to say, the Parade of Fools never seemed to end in 2024. Take “St. Elon” Musk, for instance. Please. Before the election, we were forced to endure the nation’s most relentless bloviator as an annoyance who wouldn’t go away. Now? He actually thinks he matters in the grand scheme of things and has surreptitiously been given semi-official power, which will prove to be a giant bowl of Not Good for the entire country.
The word tedious doesn’t even to begin to describe the kind of false promises this guy has unleashed on the public. When it comes to “Full Self Driving” and now “robotaxis” Musk has managed to serially overpromise and underdeliver every damn time. Which is why I – and you – shouldn’t expect any different this time around. It’s like that tired old sign over the bar that says “free beer tomorrow,” but, of course, when it comes to Musk and his various forms of driverless systems for cars, tomorrow never, ever comes. So, when St. Elon suggests “It won’t be long now!” please don’t get your hopes up.
I predict that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the development of autonomous vehicles will turn out to be the biggest financial disaster – this side of The Great Recession – in automotive history. (Musk should be used to that, after his gross mismanagement of Twitter/X -WG.) The focus on autonomous conveyances and the promise of a Utopian future of no-involvement ride sharing and rent-by-the-minute usage will devolve into lawyered-up tech companies frantically fighting over a few big municipal fleets, contracts with the U. S. Post Office and very narrowly-focused utilization for the elderly. And, The Masters from The Valley of Silicon will remain incredulous that consumers just didn’t buy into their all-encompassing brilliance.
But that’s the world we find ourselves in today. While inundated with half-truths or flat-out lies across the spectrum of our daily grinds, we’re forced to sort through the unmitigated bullshit constantly spewed out by myriad hucksters like Musk.
As for Carlos Tavares, we witnessed another “I’m a genius just ask me” automotive executive go down in flames, damn near taking all of Stellantis’ U.S. operations down with him. Tavares, another one of these “parachute in, helicopter out” executives who leave chaos in their wake at every turn – aka “The Farley Method” – started paying attention to the real issues facing Stellantis’ U.S. operations when it was far too late. The result? Another automotive “genius” got canned.
Not that U.S. operatives weren’t complicit in the company’s near - and still possible - implosion. The execs in Auburn Hills relentlessly jacked up prices, taking a page from the Greed Merchants at Porsche, thinking that $70,000 Jeep Wranglers were actually a sustainable business model. This just in: It wasn’t, and lo and behold Jeep piled up almost two years of declining sales. But the stumblebums out in Auburn Hills aren’t finished, apparently, not even close, in fact. Now, they’re pushing the Charger Daytona EV, a 5,800-lb. “muscle” car with a glorious faux sound track that is allegedly the greatest thing since sliced bread, at least according to some auto journos. (Is a free trip to Phoenix in December all it takes to elicit a glowing review? Get a grip, folks. -WG) And while Stellantis execs are touting their new EV, they’re frantically working overtime to push the ICE version of the car ahead, which is powered by a turbocharged inline 6-cylinder. Don’t kid yourselves. The ICE version is the key vehicle here; the EV version is an ongoing pipe dream of “authenticity.”
Speaking of “The Farley Method” the chronic mismanagement authored by Jim “Electric Boy” Farley, the Ford CEO, continues. (“The Farley Follies” was a very popular column this year – WG) And the recurring question I get asked constantly is, "Why is he still there?" Farley's rumblin', bumblin' and stumblin' behavior was a litany of bad news for the Dearborn automaker. To whit? Ford's third-quarter net income fell 26 percent. This was largely attributed to Ford delaying some of its EVs - (Cue Johnny Carson: "Gee, I did not know that." -WG), but it resulted in the company also lowering its full-year adjusted EBIT to “around $10 billion” after previously saying it could earn as much as $12 billion. But wait! Farley Apologist-in-Chief - CFO John Lawler - said it was all good, because the company's total adjusted earnings - before interest and taxes - rose 16 percent to $2.6 billion, with a revenue increase of 5 percent to $46 billion. Huzzah! “It’s a good proof point of our product strategy and our overall Ford+ strategy,” Lawler said on a call with reporters Oct. 28, as reported by Automotive News. “We grew the top line, we grew the bottom line, our balance sheet’s in great shape, so it was a solid quarter.” Really, John? That's all you got? Lawler went on to say that Ford has cut $2 billion in costs this year, but those reductions are being offset by inflation and higher warranty expenses. (Italics mine.)
“We’ve got a great strategy, but cost is holding us back,” Lawler said. “It’s an opportunity for us to really unlock the full potential of Ford, and that’s why we’re focused on improving costs not only this focus but every quarter.” Lawler, without specifying an exact dollar amount, according to AN, said Ford’s warranty costs were slightly lower than at the same point a year earlier. That follows an $800 million year-over-year increase in the second quarter. This is Farley speak writ large. Pay no attention to that ol' bugaboo behind the curtain! Ford's abject failure to deal with its crushing warranty costs, which Farley promised to get a handle on from Day One, has permanently scarred the company, and that's directly due to Jimbo's serial incompetence. The Bottom Line for Ford? The Farley Follies continue unabated, and it is wreaking havoc on any of the goodwill accrued by Bill Ford and his fabulous resurrection of the Michigan Central station.
And now, an ugly reality is looming for Bill Ford, because he has no succession plan for After Farley, which should be much sooner rather than later. I would like to point out to our readers that Farley "has plenty of money" as he took it upon himself to remind me repeatedly. (Yeah, he's a card-carrying Unctuous Prick, in case you were wondering.) So, there's no reason to fret about his future After Ford. He'll just retreat to California and spend money like water on his vintage racing habit. In closing, in thinking about the consistently underwhelming performance by Farley, I'm reminded of the exceptional - and memorable - quote by Joe Pesci in Casino when describing an underperforming wise guy: "He could fuck-up a cup of coffee." That's an apt and painfully accurate description of Farley.
But wait, there’s more. As if right on cue, Ford announced on Halloween that it would idle its F-150 Lightning EV plant in mid-November for the rest of the year. And it gets worse. Ford also agreed to pay a fine of up to $165 million — the second-largest civil fine ever levied by NHTSA — for failing to comply with federal recall requirements, according to Automotive News. NHTSA determined that Ford failed to recall vehicles with defective rearview cameras in a timely manner and failed to provide accurate and complete recall information. Just a reminder: Ford has led the auto industry in U.S. recalls for three consecutive years. It is leading the industry again this year with 58 recalls, tied with Stellantis. Ford executives in October cited cost concerns, especially warranties, as a main reason for lowered earnings expectations. And the hits to the bottom line just keep on comin' under Electric Boy's watch.
For Bill Ford, the pressing question is: How long is this sustainable? I will answer that question – it simply isn’t. Recalls are seriously impacting Ford’s bottom line, and this situation has not improved one iota since Farley was handed the reins of the company in 2020. Ford’s performance in this area has been below mediocre, shockingly so, in fact. And now the next question for Bill Ford becomes: What price mediocrity? And, the answer, apparently, is what Farley has been paid since becoming CEO, which is approaching a jaw-dropping $100 million. This just in: The clock is ticking on Farley’s reign.
But that’s not all.
It wasn’t all that long ago that certain Detroit automakers were awash in optimism while predicting an EV Future brimming with blue skies and unlimited profitability. The automakers in question were quite certain that they would ace “The Grand Transition” to EVs by becoming tech-savvy titans, creating digital wonder wagons that allow them to monetize everything that moves, multitasking their way to a New Era for the automobile industry. Detroit would become America’s new shining city on a hill, rivaling Silicon Valley in technical wonders and American exceptionalism. In turn, the two companies in question firmly believed that they would create a new breed of plugged-in, turned-on, shiny happy consumers scurrying about their day with broad smiles, while basking in the glow of the wonder of it all.
Well, a funny thing happened on the way to creating automotive nirvana. The two automakers in question – Ford and GM – screwed up big-time, and now they’re paying for it in no uncertain terms.
I’ve already covered Farley, but what can possibly be said about GM CEO Mary "Zero Crashes, Zero Emissions, Zero Congestion" Barra? She bet the soon-to-be-torn-down Silver Silos that GM could flip the proverbial switch and become a big-time player in EVs literally overnight, only to discover that it's one thing to project confidence while touting lofty goals, but it's quite another to actually be able to deliver on them.
GM's True Believers cranked flat-out on these engineering targets, dealing with challenge after challenge, while trying to deliver on Barra’s endless boasts. But in the course of doing do, a lot of missing pieces were exposed, especially the company’s lack of software knowledge and the fundamental issues of EV manufacturing capability. And, of course, the problems mounted. The Ultium battery packs encountered serious assembly problems, critical software issues shelved the highly-touted Chevrolet Blazer EV with a "stop sell" order. And the company’s class-leading Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon pickups were parked at assembly plants due to more critical software issues.
And last but certainly not least, let's not forget Barra’s enduring fascination with GM’s Cruise autonomous vehicle division, which Barra relentlessly touted but which has ended up costing the company billions – all of which was compounded by the fact that a pedestrian in San Francisco hit by another vehicle was thrown into the path of a self-driving Cruise car and dragged about 20 feet. Barra jettisoned Cruise last week, announcing that the technology would be incorporated into GM’s production vehicles when advantageous. This, of course made the Wall Street-types giddy about GM’s new “forward thinking” operating mantra. My question to these so-called experts is, really? That’s all it takes to anoint Barra as “chastened” and say that we’re basking in the glow of a “new” GM? You’ve got to be kidding me. Last time I checked, "wishing and hoping" doesn't constitute a viable strategy. Talk about doubling down on “It Won’t Be Long Now!”
And, in case you’ve been following along, the tone and tenor of the coverage of the auto industry has changed dramatically recently. All of a sudden, the promise of the “Grand Transition” to EVs is picking up steam again – at least the image of it anyway – in certain circles of the automotive media. CEO Mary Barra remains bullish about GM’s position now and in the future when it comes to actually making money on EVs. And it seems certain members of the automotive media lapped that up and are now dutifully reporting that indeed “It won’t be long now!” before GM is on a roll with its EVs.
GM also announced that it had dropped its “Ultium” brand name off of all of its EVs, which was a bit of a stunner, but then again not. GM has a longstanding – and bad – habit of spending huge amounts of money on things and then just walking away when it becomes apparent that it’s not really working all that well. In this case it’s because they’ve come to the realization that when it comes to EV systems, one approach in fact does not fit all. So, the millions upon millions GM spent on branding and marketing Ultium are now just gone with the wind. In other words, and all together now: Never Mind.
To say I’m skeptical that “It won’t be long now!” for GM to soon start making serious money on EVs is an understatement. The mythical “switch” hasn’t been flipped, and even though some auto journos are insisting that consumers are now willing to move to EVs, that is wishful thinking on a grand scale. What has changed, exactly? More EVs becoming available? That’s true, as GM, for instance, is finally trickling out its array of EVs. With the emphasis, I might add, on trickling out. But what else has changed? The availability of charging? Hardly, that is still woefully underserved, especially for apartment dwellers. The speed of charging? If you’re spending more than $100,000, sure, it might be impressive, but for mainstream consumers, it’s still a hard “not fast enough.” And oh, by the way, cost is still a fundamental issue. That there’s still a general consumer skepticism out there about the pricing of EVs – even though there are several “affordable” options available – hasn’t changed one iota.
What is being done about that? Here’s one local example: Even though this is indeed the company town of company towns, the aggressive advertising we’ve been seeing for months touting unheard-of cheap leases for GM EVs is shocking. The demand simply isn’t there yet, and these remarkable lease numbers are indicative of that. So, GM’s Barra suggesting “It won’t be long now!” doesn’t count for much.
The other daunting issue brewing involves the onslaught of Chinese-sourced EVs that threatens to disrupt not only the market here but the global auto industry as a whole. The U.S. automakers – and the larger U.S. economy – are simply not prepared for the unfettered imports of Chinese-made EVs, and how this shakes out will determine the future stability of the U.S. auto industry, and that’s no exaggeration.
And by the way and in case you were wondering, to those expecting Nissan to recover to become some semblance of an actual thriving car company, please just stop. The permanent demise of Nissan is approaching rapidly, and there’s no amount of cost-cutting or product rejuvenation that will save it. Expect Nissan to eventually be carved up and parted out – there’s no turning back.
So, “It won’t be long now!”? Yes, it will, in fact. Just one example? I’m already seeing another couple of years before the new-generation – and entry-level – Chevrolet Bolt will be available. (GM is saying it will be 2026, but that suggests to me that it will be 2027.) That’s just the way this business rolls right now. And I get the fact that GM operatives are jacked about the Escalade IQ EV and the huge profitability it represents, but until the company gets that new Bolt out in serious numbers, “It won’t be long now!” will be an ongoing fallacy.
This “Grand Transition” to EVs is already an all-encompassing grind that is consuming everything in its path. Predictions and suppositions right now count for exactly nothing. No one knows how long this will take, or how this will ultimately shake out (although wake me up when it’s 2035; we’ll know much better then). It’s clear that some companies are going to be left like a house on the side of the road; they’ll be used up and ultimately swallowed up in the chaos.
The only thing I am absolutely sure of is that our nation will not end up with an all-EV fleet. We will have a kaleidoscope of propulsion systems at our disposal, including ICE, hybrids and hydrogen-fueled vehicles.
That said, it’s time to turn over the column to WordGirl, as she graces the proceedings with her carefully curated Top 13 Rants for 2024.
Editor's Note: We laughed, we cried, we wanted to call it quits. And that was just January. To say that 2024 was a downer is a bit of an understatement. And once again, with apologies to the 1993 movie Groundhog Day, which was actually poignant and funny, the Year 2024 in the auto business proved to be a much bleaker show - a sobering and often downright depressing view of a reality that played in an endless loop, mind-numbingly the same, day after day. But that doesn't mean we put the brakes on the High-Octane Truth. Quite the opposite, actually. There was plenty to Rant about - and then some. And so, here they are - my top 13 Rants for 2024. Highs and lows? It was more like lows and lowers. Although, it must be said that Peter's impassioned plea to just get out there and go for a drive is a sure-fire way to sustain us in the darkness. -WG
GM DOUBLES DOWN ON STUPID.
Needless to say, the Parade of Fools never seemed to end in 2024. Take “St. Elon” Musk, for instance. Please. Before the election, we were forced to endure the nation’s most relentless bloviator as an annoyance who wouldn’t go away. Now? He actually thinks he matters in the grand scheme of things and has surreptitiously been given semi-official power, which will prove to be a giant bowl of Not Good for the entire country.
The word tedious doesn’t even to begin to describe the kind of false promises this guy has unleashed on the public. When it comes to “Full Self Driving” and now “robotaxis” Musk has managed to serially overpromise and underdeliver every damn time. Which is why I – and you – shouldn’t expect any different this time around. It’s like that tired old sign over the bar that says “free beer tomorrow,” but, of course, when it comes to Musk and his various forms of driverless systems for cars, tomorrow never, ever comes. So, when St. Elon suggests “It won’t be long now!” please don’t get your hopes up.
I predict that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the development of autonomous vehicles will turn out to be the biggest financial disaster – this side of The Great Recession – in automotive history. (Musk should be used to that, after his gross mismanagement of Twitter/X -WG.) The focus on autonomous conveyances and the promise of a Utopian future of no-involvement ride sharing and rent-by-the-minute usage will devolve into lawyered-up tech companies frantically fighting over a few big municipal fleets, contracts with the U. S. Post Office and very narrowly-focused utilization for the elderly. And, The Masters from The Valley of Silicon will remain incredulous that consumers just didn’t buy into their all-encompassing brilliance.
But that’s the world we find ourselves in today. While inundated with half-truths or flat-out lies across the spectrum of our daily grinds, we’re forced to sort through the unmitigated bullshit constantly spewed out by myriad hucksters like Musk.
As for Carlos Tavares, we witnessed another “I’m a genius just ask me” automotive executive go down in flames, damn near taking all of Stellantis’ U.S. operations down with him. Tavares, another one of these “parachute in, helicopter out” executives who leave chaos in their wake at every turn – aka “The Farley Method” – started paying attention to the real issues facing Stellantis’ U.S. operations when it was far too late. The result? Another automotive “genius” got canned.
Not that U.S. operatives weren’t complicit in the company’s near - and still possible - implosion. The execs in Auburn Hills relentlessly jacked up prices, taking a page from the Greed Merchants at Porsche, thinking that $70,000 Jeep Wranglers were actually a sustainable business model. This just in: It wasn’t, and lo and behold Jeep piled up almost two years of declining sales. But the stumblebums out in Auburn Hills aren’t finished, apparently, not even close, in fact. Now, they’re pushing the Charger Daytona EV, a 5,800-lb. “muscle” car with a glorious faux sound track that is allegedly the greatest thing since sliced bread, at least according to some auto journos. (Is a free trip to Phoenix in December all it takes to elicit a glowing review? Get a grip, folks. -WG) And while Stellantis execs are touting their new EV, they’re frantically working overtime to push the ICE version of the car ahead, which is powered by a turbocharged inline 6-cylinder. Don’t kid yourselves. The ICE version is the key vehicle here; the EV version is an ongoing pipe dream of “authenticity.”
Speaking of “The Farley Method” the chronic mismanagement authored by Jim “Electric Boy” Farley, the Ford CEO, continues. (“The Farley Follies” was a very popular column this year – WG) And the recurring question I get asked constantly is, "Why is he still there?" Farley's rumblin', bumblin' and stumblin' behavior was a litany of bad news for the Dearborn automaker. To whit? Ford's third-quarter net income fell 26 percent. This was largely attributed to Ford delaying some of its EVs - (Cue Johnny Carson: "Gee, I did not know that." -WG), but it resulted in the company also lowering its full-year adjusted EBIT to “around $10 billion” after previously saying it could earn as much as $12 billion. But wait! Farley Apologist-in-Chief - CFO John Lawler - said it was all good, because the company's total adjusted earnings - before interest and taxes - rose 16 percent to $2.6 billion, with a revenue increase of 5 percent to $46 billion. Huzzah! “It’s a good proof point of our product strategy and our overall Ford+ strategy,” Lawler said on a call with reporters Oct. 28, as reported by Automotive News. “We grew the top line, we grew the bottom line, our balance sheet’s in great shape, so it was a solid quarter.” Really, John? That's all you got? Lawler went on to say that Ford has cut $2 billion in costs this year, but those reductions are being offset by inflation and higher warranty expenses. (Italics mine.)
“We’ve got a great strategy, but cost is holding us back,” Lawler said. “It’s an opportunity for us to really unlock the full potential of Ford, and that’s why we’re focused on improving costs not only this focus but every quarter.” Lawler, without specifying an exact dollar amount, according to AN, said Ford’s warranty costs were slightly lower than at the same point a year earlier. That follows an $800 million year-over-year increase in the second quarter. This is Farley speak writ large. Pay no attention to that ol' bugaboo behind the curtain! Ford's abject failure to deal with its crushing warranty costs, which Farley promised to get a handle on from Day One, has permanently scarred the company, and that's directly due to Jimbo's serial incompetence. The Bottom Line for Ford? The Farley Follies continue unabated, and it is wreaking havoc on any of the goodwill accrued by Bill Ford and his fabulous resurrection of the Michigan Central station.
And now, an ugly reality is looming for Bill Ford, because he has no succession plan for After Farley, which should be much sooner rather than later. I would like to point out to our readers that Farley "has plenty of money" as he took it upon himself to remind me repeatedly. (Yeah, he's a card-carrying Unctuous Prick, in case you were wondering.) So, there's no reason to fret about his future After Ford. He'll just retreat to California and spend money like water on his vintage racing habit. In closing, in thinking about the consistently underwhelming performance by Farley, I'm reminded of the exceptional - and memorable - quote by Joe Pesci in Casino when describing an underperforming wise guy: "He could fuck-up a cup of coffee." That's an apt and painfully accurate description of Farley.
But wait, there’s more. As if right on cue, Ford announced on Halloween that it would idle its F-150 Lightning EV plant in mid-November for the rest of the year. And it gets worse. Ford also agreed to pay a fine of up to $165 million — the second-largest civil fine ever levied by NHTSA — for failing to comply with federal recall requirements, according to Automotive News. NHTSA determined that Ford failed to recall vehicles with defective rearview cameras in a timely manner and failed to provide accurate and complete recall information. Just a reminder: Ford has led the auto industry in U.S. recalls for three consecutive years. It is leading the industry again this year with 58 recalls, tied with Stellantis. Ford executives in October cited cost concerns, especially warranties, as a main reason for lowered earnings expectations. And the hits to the bottom line just keep on comin' under Electric Boy's watch.
For Bill Ford, the pressing question is: How long is this sustainable? I will answer that question – it simply isn’t. Recalls are seriously impacting Ford’s bottom line, and this situation has not improved one iota since Farley was handed the reins of the company in 2020. Ford’s performance in this area has been below mediocre, shockingly so, in fact. And now the next question for Bill Ford becomes: What price mediocrity? And, the answer, apparently, is what Farley has been paid since becoming CEO, which is approaching a jaw-dropping $100 million. This just in: The clock is ticking on Farley’s reign.
But that’s not all.
It wasn’t all that long ago that certain Detroit automakers were awash in optimism while predicting an EV Future brimming with blue skies and unlimited profitability. The automakers in question were quite certain that they would ace “The Grand Transition” to EVs by becoming tech-savvy titans, creating digital wonder wagons that allow them to monetize everything that moves, multitasking their way to a New Era for the automobile industry. Detroit would become America’s new shining city on a hill, rivaling Silicon Valley in technical wonders and American exceptionalism. In turn, the two companies in question firmly believed that they would create a new breed of plugged-in, turned-on, shiny happy consumers scurrying about their day with broad smiles, while basking in the glow of the wonder of it all.
Well, a funny thing happened on the way to creating automotive nirvana. The two automakers in question – Ford and GM – screwed up big-time, and now they’re paying for it in no uncertain terms.
I’ve already covered Farley, but what can possibly be said about GM CEO Mary "Zero Crashes, Zero Emissions, Zero Congestion" Barra? She bet the soon-to-be-torn-down Silver Silos that GM could flip the proverbial switch and become a big-time player in EVs literally overnight, only to discover that it's one thing to project confidence while touting lofty goals, but it's quite another to actually be able to deliver on them.
GM's True Believers cranked flat-out on these engineering targets, dealing with challenge after challenge, while trying to deliver on Barra’s endless boasts. But in the course of doing do, a lot of missing pieces were exposed, especially the company’s lack of software knowledge and the fundamental issues of EV manufacturing capability. And, of course, the problems mounted. The Ultium battery packs encountered serious assembly problems, critical software issues shelved the highly-touted Chevrolet Blazer EV with a "stop sell" order. And the company’s class-leading Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon pickups were parked at assembly plants due to more critical software issues.
And last but certainly not least, let's not forget Barra’s enduring fascination with GM’s Cruise autonomous vehicle division, which Barra relentlessly touted but which has ended up costing the company billions – all of which was compounded by the fact that a pedestrian in San Francisco hit by another vehicle was thrown into the path of a self-driving Cruise car and dragged about 20 feet. Barra jettisoned Cruise last week, announcing that the technology would be incorporated into GM’s production vehicles when advantageous. This, of course made the Wall Street-types giddy about GM’s new “forward thinking” operating mantra. My question to these so-called experts is, really? That’s all it takes to anoint Barra as “chastened” and say that we’re basking in the glow of a “new” GM? You’ve got to be kidding me. Last time I checked, "wishing and hoping" doesn't constitute a viable strategy. Talk about doubling down on “It Won’t Be Long Now!”
And, in case you’ve been following along, the tone and tenor of the coverage of the auto industry has changed dramatically recently. All of a sudden, the promise of the “Grand Transition” to EVs is picking up steam again – at least the image of it anyway – in certain circles of the automotive media. CEO Mary Barra remains bullish about GM’s position now and in the future when it comes to actually making money on EVs. And it seems certain members of the automotive media lapped that up and are now dutifully reporting that indeed “It won’t be long now!” before GM is on a roll with its EVs.
GM also announced that it had dropped its “Ultium” brand name off of all of its EVs, which was a bit of a stunner, but then again not. GM has a longstanding – and bad – habit of spending huge amounts of money on things and then just walking away when it becomes apparent that it’s not really working all that well. In this case it’s because they’ve come to the realization that when it comes to EV systems, one approach in fact does not fit all. So, the millions upon millions GM spent on branding and marketing Ultium are now just gone with the wind. In other words, and all together now: Never Mind.
To say I’m skeptical that “It won’t be long now!” for GM to soon start making serious money on EVs is an understatement. The mythical “switch” hasn’t been flipped, and even though some auto journos are insisting that consumers are now willing to move to EVs, that is wishful thinking on a grand scale. What has changed, exactly? More EVs becoming available? That’s true, as GM, for instance, is finally trickling out its array of EVs. With the emphasis, I might add, on trickling out. But what else has changed? The availability of charging? Hardly, that is still woefully underserved, especially for apartment dwellers. The speed of charging? If you’re spending more than $100,000, sure, it might be impressive, but for mainstream consumers, it’s still a hard “not fast enough.” And oh, by the way, cost is still a fundamental issue. That there’s still a general consumer skepticism out there about the pricing of EVs – even though there are several “affordable” options available – hasn’t changed one iota.
What is being done about that? Here’s one local example: Even though this is indeed the company town of company towns, the aggressive advertising we’ve been seeing for months touting unheard-of cheap leases for GM EVs is shocking. The demand simply isn’t there yet, and these remarkable lease numbers are indicative of that. So, GM’s Barra suggesting “It won’t be long now!” doesn’t count for much.
The other daunting issue brewing involves the onslaught of Chinese-sourced EVs that threatens to disrupt not only the market here but the global auto industry as a whole. The U.S. automakers – and the larger U.S. economy – are simply not prepared for the unfettered imports of Chinese-made EVs, and how this shakes out will determine the future stability of the U.S. auto industry, and that’s no exaggeration.
And by the way and in case you were wondering, to those expecting Nissan to recover to become some semblance of an actual thriving car company, please just stop. The permanent demise of Nissan is approaching rapidly, and there’s no amount of cost-cutting or product rejuvenation that will save it. Expect Nissan to eventually be carved up and parted out – there’s no turning back.
So, “It won’t be long now!”? Yes, it will, in fact. Just one example? I’m already seeing another couple of years before the new-generation – and entry-level – Chevrolet Bolt will be available. (GM is saying it will be 2026, but that suggests to me that it will be 2027.) That’s just the way this business rolls right now. And I get the fact that GM operatives are jacked about the Escalade IQ EV and the huge profitability it represents, but until the company gets that new Bolt out in serious numbers, “It won’t be long now!” will be an ongoing fallacy.
This “Grand Transition” to EVs is already an all-encompassing grind that is consuming everything in its path. Predictions and suppositions right now count for exactly nothing. No one knows how long this will take, or how this will ultimately shake out (although wake me up when it’s 2035; we’ll know much better then). It’s clear that some companies are going to be left like a house on the side of the road; they’ll be used up and ultimately swallowed up in the chaos.
The only thing I am absolutely sure of is that our nation will not end up with an all-EV fleet. We will have a kaleidoscope of propulsion systems at our disposal, including ICE, hybrids and hydrogen-fueled vehicles.
That said, it’s time to turn over the column to WordGirl, as she graces the proceedings with her carefully curated Top 13 Rants for 2024.
Editor's Note: We laughed, we cried, we wanted to call it quits. And that was just January. To say that 2024 was a downer is a bit of an understatement. And once again, with apologies to the 1993 movie Groundhog Day, which was actually poignant and funny, the Year 2024 in the auto business proved to be a much bleaker show - a sobering and often downright depressing view of a reality that played in an endless loop, mind-numbingly the same, day after day. But that doesn't mean we put the brakes on the High-Octane Truth. Quite the opposite, actually. There was plenty to Rant about - and then some. And so, here they are - my top 13 Rants for 2024. Highs and lows? It was more like lows and lowers. Although, it must be said that Peter's impassioned plea to just get out there and go for a drive is a sure-fire way to sustain us in the darkness. -WG
GM DOUBLES DOWN ON STUPID.
When all else fails, blame the ad agencies. Here, Peter details one of the most glaring examples of GM's serial incompetence - the management of its advertising and marketing functions (which they blew up real good last June).
A blistering expose of GM and Ford as their CEOs backpedal and make excuses for poor decisions and faulty assumptions on the road to the Grand Transition.
An unforgiving take on the dismal state of our country.
An eloquent rebuttal to the swift and searing backlash to Peter's non-car Rants.
After Peter's non-car Rants crashed with a resounding thud on the hard deck of reality, complete with much hand-wringing and hate mail, we attempt to move on.
The automobile business is apparently being distilled down to a fundamental need for electric juice, but there are many faulty assumptions being made in the process.
A sobering look at the crossroads we're confronting, as we wrestle with that most fundamental of freedoms - independence.
Nothing brightens up the relentless slog toward the Grand Transition like a visit with "the boys" at Fu-King Motors!
The latest in delusional thinking and false promises in the endless march toward our EV Future.
An impassioned argument for a return to driving - for the pure, unvarnished hell of it - because, well, at this point, that's basically the best antidote for the chaos.
An in-depth look at the latest and greatest inductees that peg the AE Stupid Meter.
Because Peak Stupidity needs more than one Rant.
Refusing to go quietly into the ICE Twilight, Peter reveals his ICE Dream Garage.
(GM Design)And so, here we are. I remember September 17, 1999, it like it was yesterday. It was a sunny Friday morning in Warren, Michigan, and I had packed up my office at Campbell-Ewald, Chevrolet’s advertising agency - which constituted exactly one box - because I had been paring down my footprint for months, and I walked out the front door of my last ad agency and the end of my ad career.
I had been writing Autoextremist.com since June 1, 1999, under an assumed name – Michael Paratore – which was a combination of my middle name and my Mom’s maiden name, and it was obvious that I couldn’t continue, because in my last official meeting, the CEO of C-E ended the meeting with the following: “Hey, do you guys know about this website, Autoextremist.com? I know that guy is in the ad business because he just knows too damn much – about everything.”
Three days later, I was gone.
We – Janice (aka Wordgirl) and I – had launched Autoextremist.com the previous and aforementioned June 1st. It was something that had been percolating in my mind since 1986, when, as longtime readers know, it was originally supposed to be a print car magazine. But my ad career got in the way, and by the spring of ’99, when I had long grown tired of the spineless weasels, the recalcitrant twerps and the mindless go along-to-get-along hordes on both the client and agency sides of the ball, I decided it was time to go in a new direction.
I had a lot to say about a lot of things, obviously, having grown-up in Detroit’s heyday with a ringside seat due to my Dad’s 22-year tenure as Vice President of Public Relations for General Motors (1957-1979), followed by my own 22-year stint in the ad biz. I grew up with industry legends in our driveway and around the corner in our neighborhood. It was a heady time to say the least.
Ed Cole would send his personal drivers over to our house for the weekend for my brother Tony to drive, including his 409 Chevy – the only one in existence on the street at the time – and his beautiful fuel-injected ‘63 Corvette Sting Ray coupe in Silver, before any of them had even been seen on the street.
Bunkie Knudsen, deep in the throes of resurrecting the Pontiac Division from being an afterthought, would send the hottest Pontiac of the moment to the house for my Mom to drive for the summer, usually a bright red convertible stuffed with the biggest engine Pontiac offered at the moment.
I had the opportunity to ride in every significant GM Styling concept car of the era, because GM Design legend Bill Mitchell lived down the block and would let me ride with him up to the corner store while he did his errands. Those machines included the XP-700 “bubble top” Corvette; the original Corvette Mako Shark; the Corvair Sebring Spyder; the Corvair Monza SS and GT; the Pontiac XP-400 (powered by a supercharged 421 cu. in. V8 built by Mickey Thompson) and, of course, the original 1959 Corvette Sting Racer, which, to this day remains my all-time favorite car.
The best thing about all of this is that I understood what was happening in the moment. These aren’t fond memories punched up and glamorized. These memories are the real deal, and I happily soaked-up every full-throttle moment as it happened.
After I graduated from Michigan State, I tried selling cars at an Oldsmobile-GMC-Datsun dealer in Lansing, Michigan. To say I wasn’t suited to this endeavor is such an understatement that it is beyond laughable, to the point that the General Manager called me in after eight weeks and said, “You just march to a different drummer,” before firing me. Which turned out to be a blessing.
I returned to the sales training firm where I had been their hippie errand driver – another job I had when I was avoiding going back to school – and I started as a junior copywriter, for the salary of $6800 annually, in 1977. The company, Regan Productions, allowed me to get up to speed before joining MacManus, John and Adams, to work on the Pontiac advertising account.
Working on the Pontiac account at that point in time was about the very best experience you could possibly have in the ad biz. We were all young and thrown in with the grizzled veterans – some of whom worked on the glamorous and memorable Pontiac campaigns of the past – and it was tough, but it was also an absolute blast much of the time, because partying was part and parcel with getting the actual work done. That’s where I developed my copywriting chops, and I was able to work on all of the performance advertising, which became my specialty.
From there it was off to William Esty in New York and L.A., to work on Nissan, back to Detroit to work at BBDO on the Dodge account and eventually ending up at Campbell-Ewald in 1990, to work on Chevrolet.
For the entire time during my ad career, I was accumulating knowledge about how this business was actually run, and as the business – and Detroit – was starting to go south in a decisive way, my observations grew more pointed and urgent, and that was when I knew that I could no longer keep silent, that I had a lot to say and I needed a forum to say it.
Thus, Autoextremist was born on that blazing hot summer day back in June of 1999. It was like nothing else out there. We said what the other journalists would only discuss in “deep background” conversations or in late-night bar talk. We named names, we called out the poseurs and the dilettantes, and I especially went after the serial incompetents who were running the auto business – as practiced here in the Motor City – right into the ground.
I combined my deep well of knowledge about Detroit’s heyday with a bracing dose of acerbic reality and understanding about how things had gone off of the rails. My opening column was entitled “White Boy Culture,” which was a devastating assessment of the factors contributing to Detroit’s demise. This was followed by “The Sad Saga of Saturn,” where I detailed the lengthy history of how GM snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with its egregious mishandling of the Saturn brand. It was specific, it was deadly accurate, and it was the column that got everybody talking.
Some of the comments were memorable as in: “Who the fuck are you and where are you getting your information?” Or, “You’re so fucking accurate it hurts.” And “Finally, someone actually telling the truth.” And so on.
The buzz about Autoextremist ratcheted up exponentially. The journos went crazy with speculation as to who I was, and GM operatives in particular were incensed that there was a rogue journalist “out there” who nailed the ugly reality of how GM botched a golden opportunity with Saturn.
The Bare-Knuckled, Unvarnished, High-Octane Truth had indeed arrived.
Most of you are familiar with the rest of the AE story. When I left C-E and my name appeared on the website the following week, an entirely new round of chatter was unleashed. Some journalists insisted that they knew it was me, and others said they wished I had kept my real name off of the site. And, of course my close friends in the ad biz said that they knew it was me all along; the fiery and passionate tone of the writing was unmistakable.
To say that Autoextremist.com has been a rocket ride like no other is an understatement for this or any other year. Janice and I laugh (sort of) by saying, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” That it was indeed. The highs were remarkable and gratifying; the lows were excruciating and debilitating. (I’m often reminded of my favorite Cameron Crowe quote from Jerry McGuire: “It’s an up at dawn, pride swallowing siege.”)
But one thing you will never hear from us is that the years have flown by, because that is simply not true. We have curated each and every word, sweated every last detail and deadline, refused to phone it in and brought the kind of exceptional journalism to life every single week that pleases us, because we have always been our harshest critics.
But it’s no secret that the business has changed irrevocably. And I clearly don’t have the stomach for what this industry has become. Yes, the True Believers are still being true to themselves and doing outstanding work, but the “Grand Transition” to EVs has left me cold and uninterested. And yes, Design still matters (and always will for that matter), but the rest of the business has turned unmistakably ugly. Executives who have been anointed as “The One” for no apparent reason are still making massive mistakes with little or no accountability, and the business continues to churn on through the Swirling Maelstrom with little rhyme or reason for optimism. Yes, the EVs of today will be made painfully obsolete in short order, and newer, better, lighter and more environmentally friendly EVs will replace them to great effect, but the headlong rush into autonomous vehicles will be the death-knell for personal mobility, as the ability to go and do as we see fit will be massively curtailed. And that should be a wakeup call for everyone.
Which brings us to today, 25 years and six months or so later. That feeling I had way back when that pushed me to finally create Autoextremist.com has returned. It’s been gnawing at me on and off for months now, and it never really goes away. Back then I said, “I don’t want to wake up five years from now mumbling to myself “woulda-coulda-shoulda,” so, if not now for Autoextremist, when?
Now? It’s the feeling that it’s time for me to do some writing for myself other than AE, writing that has been percolating in my mind for years now. After hearing about the premise, my cousin Victor (the founding member and original drummer of the Violent Femmes) enthusiastically encouraged me to start writing it, as in, if not now, when? Because after all, it’s always later than we think.
So, instead of writing for AE at 3:00 a.m., I will now be writing for myself, ably abetted by Janice (aka WordGirl), my longtime friend and editor. What does it mean for the website? We have decided to lengthen our annual break into the new year until February 5th, at which point we will decide what happens next. In the meantime, I will continue to appear in “On The Table” and write “Fumes” and compose “The Line.” I just won’t be doing a new Rant every week. Instead, working with Janice, we will run a series of “Best-of” Rants as we see fit.
I’m not going anywhere, and I’ll still be around in case you’re wondering. Just don’t ask me if it’s the Beginning of the End, because that would be so wrong.
I prefer to think of it as The End of the Beginning, because I’m far from finished.
I prefer to think of it as The End of the Beginning, because I’m far from finished.
I’ll leave the last word to Keith Richards:
After all is said and done
I gotta move, it's still fun
I'm gonna walk before they make me run
I gotta move, it's still fun
I'm gonna walk before they make me run
And that’s the High-Octane Truth for 2024.
Editor's Note: You can access previous issues of AE by clicking on "Next 1 Entries" below. - WG