MO EVS, MO PROBLEMS.

Editor's Note: Besides Peter's take on the churning EV issues in his column this week, check out "On The Table," the fifth part of "The Drivers" in "Fumes" and Peter's annual "The State of the Sport" in "The Line." -WG

By Peter M. DeLorenzo

Detroit. As winter settles in around these parts – with its signature bone-chilling cold and biting winds –something else is blowing in too. The coming EV Era has become The Thing for everyone from mainstream carpal-tunnel-laced scribes, hack politicians and the almighty “seers” on Wall Street, to the accidental – and remarkably ill-informed – pundits and half-baked Internet trolls who exist in a delusional state of their own making. Throw in the Muskian SuperSlurpers, and it’s a recipe for chaos.

But the onset of this all-EV-all-the-time frenzy can’t change the reality of what’s really happening, and that is that this precarious limbo we’re having to deal with hinges on the fading light of ICE vehicles delivering real profits, while the EV Era begins to come into focus. And this “coming into focus” business is fraught with potholes and false hopes, much of it hinging upon the development of an EV infrastructure, which has been excruciatingly slow to materialize. Yes, I’m well aware of the “It Won’t Be Long Now!” chorus emanating from all interested – and invested – parties, but that isn’t nearly good enough.

The infrastructure challenge can be broken into two main issues: 

1. Not just the number of the charging locations but the quality of those locations. The lack of charging stations is real and mission critical, and half-assing the progress of improving the situation seems to be based on the premise that new EV owners will adapt to the little “inconveniences” of owning an EV. That’s simply nonsensical and isn’t going to cut it. Beyond the marketing issues associated with selling EVs, which I’ll get to in a moment, the idea that buyers will simply go with the flow of owning an EV while the infrastructure comes to fruition around them is just plain silly. In this 24/7 instantaneous society we’re burdened with today, the attention span of the typical consumer is not only severely limited, any notion that they’ll put up with the various “inconveniences” of owning an EV – when the infrastructure is severely lacking – is just plain laughable.

2. Another point I’ve been making since the start of the EV “buzz” is that unless and until on-the-road charging of an EV is reduced to ten minutes – or less – to achieve 80 percent capacity (or more), the mass adoption of this EV Thing will remain at a glacier-like pace. Yes, I understand that remarkable strides are being promised as you read this as to the coming charging capabilities just around the corner, but promises aren’t going to cut it much longer. This is going to have to become reality sooner rather than sometime in the future. I view this as being absolutely essential for the mass adoption of EVs.

I am not going to get in to the “range” issue because it has become the basic price of entry for doing business in the EV arena now. If an auto manufacturer is not offering vehicles at 300 miles of range or above at this point, they’re nowhere. I believe range anxiety will rapidly become a non-issue, but the charging and infrastructure issues will remain front and center indefinitely.

I mentioned the marketing of EV vehicles earlier, and as I’ve stated before, it is and will continue to be the most challenging marketing/advertising task in automotive history, for all of the aforementioned reasons. And there’s one more big reason as well: With ICE vehicles being priced considerably less than the new wave of EVs, gaining traction with the marketing of EVs is going to be difficult when going up against the real-world value of an ICE vehicle. Will the government EV incentives continue? It’s too early to tell, but I would say that without those incentives the marketing of EVs will obviously be even more problematic.

Am I getting “down” on the coming EV Age? Not at all. Once the inertia of the giant global automotive machine collectively gets rolling down this EV path, there will be no turning back. The research and development breakthroughs will continue to emerge rapidly on all fronts, and that will be a very good thing. But let’s not get carried away here, because the reality is that even though EVs will be very present all around us by 2030, it will be 2035 if not later before our nation’s fleet of vehicles approaches even 50 percent EVs. That doesn’t sound like a lot? Oh, but it is. Imagine a 17 million sales year for the U.S. market, then imagine one out of every two vehicles being battery powered, with EV penetration going up exponentially after that.

As I’ve stated repeatedly, the companies who can have each foot planted in both arenas – with the ability to manufacture competitive EV and ICE vehicles – will weather this EV transition in the best shape. In the meantime, the more EV vehicles in the market, the more the problems associated with EVs are magnified. 

Mo EVs, Mo Problems.

As the Notorious B.I.G once famously said:

I don’t know what they want from me
It’s like the more money we come across
The more problems we see

And that’s the High Octane-Electron Truth for this week.