THE AUTOEXTREMIST

August 11, 2010

Sergio’s “chaos theory” coming to a Chrysler showroom near you.

By Peter M. De Lorenzo

(Posted 8/10, 8:00PM) Detroit. I continue to be amazed at some of the genuflecting minions in the media who are still buying into Sergio Marchionne’s “vision” for the new Chrysler, er, Fiat-Chrysler, er, let’s just call it for what it is: Fiat North America circa 2013. These lesser computer-keyboard-stained wretches among us – who seem to have suspended all rational thought for the temporary comfort provided by Marchionne’s soothing “wisdom” – are falling all over themselves trying to pretend that the new Fiat-Chrysler product plan is not only pure whimsy - or abject lunacy, take your pick - but a burgeoning showroom train wreck of immense proportions.

Let’s review, shall we? Marchionne’s plan calls for at least 23 new models in Chrysler showrooms by 2013. (In case you’re wondering, Chrysler’s walking-wounded dealer body has 17 to contend with right now and for comparison’s sake, Ford has 21 models currently, sans Mercury.)

And just what, pray tell, are Chrysler’s dealers going to do with all of these vaunted new products? Let’s not forget that the great shrunken car company formerly known as Chrysler has stripped out its dealer body to the point that it’s damn near approaching skeleton crew status. And, not to state the obvious – although some out there in media land are choosing to ignore it - Chrysler’s latest financial numbers are skewed heavily toward fleet sales, while the retail side of its business continues to struggle.

According to Sergio, however, the new Jeep Grand Cherokee will fix any infirmities on the retail side of the equation and set the table for sure-fire future product success overnight. Make no mistake, the new big Jeep is a fine piece of work – as I’ve stated previously – but there’s no fixing what ails Chrysler overnight, I don’t care how great one single product is.

No, Sergio is setting up his dealers for failure, as sure as I’m writing this and here’s why. Sergio’s “chaos theory” of automotive marketing suggests that his marketing corps will be able to differentiate the four brands – Chrysler, Dodge, Ram Truck and Jeep – in the remaining Chrysler showrooms with a flip of a switch, creating a distinctive, unimpeachable persona for each.

This sounds all well and good but given the overall quality of the remaining Chrysler dealers – and hold your emails because yes, there are plenty of good ones left, just not nearly as many as Chrysler would have you believe - and the propensity for the general public to avoid Chrysler showrooms at all costs, how is this all going to work, exactly?

And to actually get up there and suggest to the media – and I mean you, Sergio – that all of this working out is just a mere formality and that once it gets rolling it will all come good overnight is bordering on sheer lunacy.

A depleted, semi-demoralized dealer body unused to having visitors in its showrooms - let alone buyers - is all of a sudden going to be able to not only understand the myriad brands and models that are suddenly overrunning its showrooms, but is going to be able to explain the differences and nuances between them to its customers, even though these new products - particularly the compact and midsize offerings - are going to be stepping all over each other on the showroom floor in terms of size and price?

Uh, Not. So. Much.

Some Chrysler dealers have already gone on record as saying the more products the merrier - that the long national nightmare brought on by the bankruptcy is over and happy times are just around the corner again - but the smarter ones know better and are understandably leery of what’s to come. The more rational among the Chrysler dealers are fearful of a looming mini-train wreck in their showrooms, with too many models crashing into each other with a redundant thud, and with little rhyme or reason given to any of it.

And there’s no amount of marketing money that will solve any of it either, certainly not within the time frame Sergio’s banking on.

And what about that whole marketing thing? Let’s not forget one other very important point that Marchionne has conveniently managed to gloss over in the midst of telling us all how great it’s going to be, and that is the fact that achieving a targeted, cohesive awareness of your product out there in the big, bad, real world of competing messaging that exists today – automotive and otherwise – is extremely difficult and consumes billions of dollars. Not millions, but billions.

It’s one thing to play fast and loose with the financials, because apparently you can spin just about anything these days and someone out there will buy it. Just look at the latest round of Chrysler financial numbers that everyone went gaga over - even though the retail sales component was woefully lacking – and you can see what I mean. I guess if Sergio says it’s okay to not put too much emphasis on the retail component and focus instead on the Big Picture, then it’s okay. Or, maybe not.

But when it comes to marketing – and shoving the equivalent of 50 lbs. of new product into the equivalent of a 25-lb. bag – and trying to sort it all out on the fly, with a weakened dealer body and a consumer public that will need more than a few good reasons to show up on your dealers’ doorsteps, it gets more than a little complicated.

And it takes time, too. Not Sergio “finger-snap” time, but a plodding, grind it out, move the ball forward kind of slog that takes years to come to fruition. Not months, but years. And there are no shortcuts, at least none that will achieve the kind of consistent, sustainable let alone instantaneous results that Marchionne so desperately needs.

And yet here’s Marchionne insisting that with his brilliant guidance – as translated through his marketing acolytes - four distinct brand personas will emerge unscathed from the wreckage of past Chrysler train wrecks, an infusion of new models will be integrated seamlessly into the American consumer consciousness with nary a hiccup or even a whiff of confusion, and the depleted Chrysler dealers will sort it all out and be wildly successful.

All by 2013.

I’m all for some glass half-full optimism now and then, but this is flat-out ridiculous.

Memo to the wildly optimistic Chrysler dealers out there: I say good luck, but don’t be surprised if the Marchionne “vision” leaves a lot to be desired in three years' time. And maybe it’s best that you learn to live with disappointment now, so the shock won’t be as bad.

And to the smart, more skeptical Chrysler dealers out there who are making a cottage industry out of hedging their bets, I say be smarter and even more skeptical, and you won’t be disappointed in the least.

And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week

 

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