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Sep122011

Monday, September 12, 2011 at 01:49PM

September 14, 2011

The Chase begins.

By Peter M. De Lorenzo

Detroit. Now that the field for NASCAR's 10-race "playoff" is set, let the hand-wringing begin as to who has a real shot at becoming champion, but more on that in a bit.

It would probably be a good time to acknowledge that The Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship, though loathed by many, is here to stay. Even though NASCAR's regular season is less confounding than the joke of the regular season that defines the NBA, where the never-ending playoffs exist solely to generate revenue for the overstuffed owners and the extravagantly overpaid players, it is still nonetheless an interminable death march of a schedule that is starting to show definitive signs of wear and fraying around the edges, for the TV networks and the fans.

With races existing only for the edification of the "we've always done it that way" mentality that seems to permeate too much of the thinking in NASCAR, with a measure of the "new markets = new sources of revenue" thrown in for good measure, the NASCAR regular season is still a mess that outlived its relevance long ago, and The Chase still seems to end up being an anticlimactic afterthought instead of the riveting, edge-of-your-seat thrill ride that NASCAR's powers-that-be want it and intended it to be.

There's a reason for that, of course. There are far too many variables when it comes to car racing that just don't register in stick-and-ball sports. And even though you can create a 10-race "playoff" it doesn't mean that the kind of intensity that can grow in a particularly riveting seven game series for the championship in baseball, for instance, will result. Not that there haven't been some good races in The Chase, but it's clear that that the prevalence of cookie-cutter tracks results in boring racing, and that shouldn't be the case for a real "playoff." It's gratifying to report that there's now a groundswell of momentum from within NASCAR to "fix" what's ailing The Chase in terms of the tracks they visit, and even though it's light years from now (although it's right around the corner in "NASCAR time") I'm expecting that major changes to the 2014 schedule will ensue, including a new road race in the final ten races. (They can start by deleting Chicagoland and Homestead-Miami from the Chase immediately, for starters.)

And just a note here, NASCAR hates it when their precious Chase is referred to as a "playoff." But that's what it is, and that's how it has to be marketed if it's going to resonate at all with the relentlessly clueless stick-and-ball media who have an uncanny knack for determining what part of NASCAR - if any - they're going to care about. And what part of it they choose to convey to the readers of their sports sections as well, since NASCAR insists on projecting their championship into the teeth of MLB's playoffs, the peak of the college football season and of course the heart of the hugely dominant NFL season.

Given all of that, what do we really have with the 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship in terms of the drivers and their chances?

Let's start with Kyle Busch: The mercurial and supremely talented Busch is the most naturally-gifted driver in NASCAR. Period. When he is on, he can beat anyone, anytime, anywhere. He is a more mature person than he was a few years ago and to me that means he will be a formidable force in this year's Chase. If he reels off a couple of wins early-on, game over.

Kevin Harvick: The only other four-race winner in the field besides Kyle Busch, Harvick has the team and the ability to win the whole damn thing. But he went through a long dry spell before his win last Saturday night in Richmond so we don't know if his win was an aberration, or if it signals that he's ready to rock. We'll see.

Jeff Gordon: The four-time champion grew tired of his teammate (Jimmie Johnson) winning all the time and thus replacing him as The Man at Hendrick Motorsports, and he grew very tired of the whispers in and out of the garage that at 40 he was done and just playing out the string. So he set about rededicating himself to the job at hand and his three wins say a lot about the effort he's put in. Reenergized, rejuvenated and hungrier than he has been in years, Gordon will be there at the end.

Matt Kenseth: "The Quiet One" but no less driven and intense than anyone else in the field of 12 drivers going for the championship, Kenseth will have to rise up and assert himself if he's going to have a shot at the title. Not likely given who he's going up against.

Carl Edwards: The one guy Ford bet the house on, Edwards has the talent to will his way to the front on any given race day. But he can't run "well" in The Chase and deliver 2nds and 3rds. He has to win right out of the gate if he's going to have a chance.

Jimmie Johnson: No one besides Jimmie, Chad Knaus, and his No. 48 team want him to win another championship this year. But until someone else knocks him off he's the champion. I don't think he's going to win it again this year, but counting him out would be a big mistake.

Kurt Busch: Talented, mercurial and with proven championship-winning ability, Busch is prone to wasting time and energy on ridiculous skirmishes with other drivers (Jimmie Johnson) at exactly the wrong moments. Busch nonetheless has everything he needs to win. Will he? No, because his lack of consistency will do him in.

Ryan Newman: Capable of being blistering fast, especially in qualifying, Newman just doesn't have the ability to reel off wins in bunches. He will run well, but running well isn't going to win him the championship.

Tony Stewart: Talented, cantankerous and every bit the modern era's A.J. Foyt - and that's high praise indeed - Stewart has been "off" too often this year. Could he surprise everyone and walk away with The Chase this year? It's possible, but given the way he has been running of late, not probable.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: He made The Chase, which has made everyone happy - especially Jr. Nation and NASCAR - but just making the field isn't going to be enough. Despite everyone's best wishes, Dale Jr. just doesn't seem to have the right stuff to pull off a series of wins, let alone a championship.

Brad Keselowski: A "wild card" in every sense of the word, Keselowski is perfectly capable of putting together a string of wins, making everyone's life miserable. But he won't win it this year. Next year? Watch out for Brad and his Penske Racing team. The kid has it goin' on.

Denny Hamlin: Talented? Certainly. But running with the kind of speed and consistency he needs to deliver a championship winning effort? No way.

I'm hoping for some great racing for a change in The Chase and some serious dust-ups too. And I hope it's at least interesting enough to merit some extra coverage from the media, which will be in the midst of covering three overwhelmingly popular fall sports that will be comfortably dominating the airwaves and the Internet.

My dream scenario? To see Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon tied for the championship lead going into the last race at Homestead. And I'd like to see them go side-by-side on the final lap, eventually crashing in to each other and sliding backwards in tandem across the start/finish line for the win, with Gordon emerging from his car with his fifth NASCAR championship in hand.

As always, we shall see.

Publisher's Note: As part of our continuing series celebrating the "Glory Days" of racing, we're proud to present another noteworthy image from the Ford Racing Archives. - PMD

(Courtesy of the Ford Racing Archives)
Daytona Beach, Florida, February 26, 1956. Al Keller slides his '56 Chevrolet out of a turn in the premier NASCAR Grand National race at the Daytona Beach & Road course. He finished sixth that day. Tim Flock won the race in his Carl Kiekhaefer-owned No. 300 Chrysler 300. Flock qualified on the pole with a lap of 135.747 mph for the event - a precursor to the Daytona 500 - and he averaged 90.657 mph over the 152-mile race distance. Billy Meyers finished second in his Bill Stroppe-prepared No. 14w Mercury and Ralph Moody was third in his No. 12 Southeastern Dealers Ford. Flock won $4,025 that day.

Publisher's Note: Like these Ford racing photos? Check out www.fordimages.com. Be forewarned, however, because you won't be able to go there and not order something. - PMD

See another live episode of "Autoline After Hours" with hosts John McElroy, from Autoline Detroit, and Peter De Lorenzo, The Autoextremist, and guests this Thursday evening, at 7:00PM EDT at www.autolinedetroit.tv.