Editor's Note: This week, Peter recounts how we got to this point with the EV "thing" and where we're going. In On The Table, we take a look at the Xiaomi SU7 - a car that blatantly rips-off the Porsche Taycan - being built in China, and it should put chills in automakers around the world; Lamborghini turns its Urus high-performance SUV into a plug-in hybrid, and we take another look at the all-electric Mercedes-Benz G-Class. It's big and heavy, of course. And our AE Song of the Week is "Nature's Way" by Spirit. In Fumes, Peter continues with Part IV of his new series "The Racers" – this week featuring the all-time great, A.J. Foyt. And finally, in The Line, we feature INDYCAR results from Barber Motorsports Park and the Spanish MotoGP from Jerez, with commentary from AE Special Contributor Whit Bazemore. We're on it! -WG
By Peter M. DeLorenzo
Detroit. I am constantly being asked via email, phone and in-person conversations about where all of this is going, as in, where is our Transportation Future headed? Sometimes I feel like Zoltar in Big because of this, but I get it. “The Grand Transition” feels more like “The Great Unknown” at this point.
EV zealots have already painted me as being “anti-EV,” but that is inaccurate and simply wrong. EVs have their place, there is absolutely no doubt about that. And for many urban dwellers with limited range needs, they can be the perfect solution. But that doesn’t account for everyone, and this is where the politicians and the hand-wringers get it wrong.
That politicians are ill-informed and dependent on, and subject to, the whims of their donors is obvious. That politicians embrace reactive, knee-jerk solutions so that they can get on with the business of enjoying the perks of being a politician is obvious too. Which is why the collective “we” – consumers and the auto manufacturers – are buried in stupid mandates revolving around “flipping the switch” to EVs, because that’s how politicians typically approach a problem. Whatever takes the least amount of effort, especially when it comes to putting the onus of responsibility on some other entity, while leaving a trail of confusion and costly mandates in their wake, is just standard operating procedure for these politicians.
Funny, that’s not how reality works, but then again no one would accuse our politicians of being even remotely familiar with reality. After all, everything about their modus operandi means avoiding reality at all costs. But that “M.O.” leaves both auto manufacturers and consumers reeling from their abject stupidity.
Two of our U.S. auto manufacturers in particular – Ford and GM – are having to backpedal from their over-commitment to the EV “thing” as you read this. Why? Because the politicians believed that they could just order these car companies to “flip a switch” and comply with their arbitrary mandates, no problem, which led to big trouble for Ford and GM. It turns out that going “all-in” for the EV “thing” had disastrous consequences for these car companies.
Dumping massive amounts of money into the EV mandate meant that these companies would have to go backward and forward at the same time. Backward, because they first had to establish fundamental alliances with other like-minded companies to ensure that they could indeed have enough raw materials to build batteries for their future EV commitments. Forward, because they had to commit to costly EV R&D programs, which proved to be exponentially more expensive by the day. On top of that, they then had to repurpose existing manufacturing facilities and/or build all-new factories to assemble batteries and eventually build the EVs that they would soon be building.
Then we started hearing about the predictions: “Our Belchfire EVs will be 100 percent electric by 2028, or ’29, or ’30, or just plain soon!” Bullish pronouncements reigned, as chants of “It Won’t Be Long Now” filled the air around these parts. The “promise” of EVs were the talk of the town: Cheaper to operate! Fewer moving parts, so much cheaper to build! The dawn of a brand-new era! Oh, this “transition” was going to be grand alright.
But while all of this rampant optimism was being bandied about, the consequences of moving faster to “The Grand Transition” for these companies resulted in myriad unforeseen problems. It turns out that assembling batteries was far from automatic, which caused massive delays in getting production up to speed. Then, the rogue ugly factor emerged: Software issues. These electronic glitches/failures paralyzed EV product launches, resulting in “stop sell” orders that seemed to crop up weekly. In short, it was a big-time mess.
And what about those consumers out there in the real world? Oh, them. It turns out that the one thing that no one bothered to do enough due diligence on was the development of a fundamental charging infrastructure that was large enough to handle current and future EV needs. Simply put, there simply weren’t enough chargers. Not only that, they weren’t maintained to even close to acceptable levels, and to say consumers who didn’t have the luxury of acceptable home charging scenarios were less than amused was an understatement.
Oh, and what about the pricing? The manufacturers shoved super-pricey “show pony” EVs down consumers’ throats, figuring the early adopters and first-on-the-blockers would lap them up and turn other consumers on to the coolness factor of EVs. Well, guess what? The people who could afford these “show ponies” were happy and big boosters of the efficacy of EVs. But again, the rest of the consumer driving public was less than amused, because there were few genuinely affordable EVs available to them.
This issue of affordability, as I’ve written countless times before, should be the No. 1 concern for these mainstream auto manufacturers, but it is not, certainly not enough to make a difference – yet. Somewhere down the line – allegedly – we will have access to a plethora of affordable ICE and EV vehicle choices. But this just in: No one is holding their breath.
So, this recap is how we got to this point, but where is it all going next? Clearly, manufacturers left and right are all of a sudden embracing the efficacy of ICE vehicles, while they continue to try to get a handle on producing EVs at decent volumes. That means building Hybrids and other ICE variations, as these manufacturers have come to the realization that the practical application of the EV “thing” that politicians had duly shoved down our collective throats is easily a half-decade away, at the very least. (These manufacturers are insisting that 2030 will be bangin’. I would add at least three years to that.)
In the meantime, we have the Korean conglomerate manufacturers – Hyundai and Kia – going full speed ahead in offering EVs across multiple segments in the U.S. market. These two companies have moved well-beyond the “they will be a force to be reckoned with” stage and are now fully-developed, aggressively savvy competitors that will wreak havoc in this market indefinitely. Oh sure, we’ll still have “show pony” SUVs (check out the new Mercedes-Benz G-Class EV in “On The Table” – WG), but affordable, mainstream EVs are where it’s at, and the U.S.-based manufacturers will be competing, albeit in their usual fits and starts, to bring affordability to the EV “thing” over the next half-decade.
And it is important to remember that the EV technology that is considered the “state-of-the-art” today will be obsolete by the time 2030 rolls around, if not sooner. Make no mistake, the pace of development in batteries and other associated EV technologies is proceeding at a staggering rate. As I’ve stated many times previously, the day you can pull off of an Interstate highway and fully recharge your EV in the time it takes you to fill your gas tank today is the day that the EV “thing” will have fully arrived.
Will we get to that point? Yes, we will, but when that will actually happen remains a giant “we’ll see” as we like to say around here. EVs will play a huge role as part of our transportation fabric in the future, but they will be only one part of a larger picture. ICE vehicles will be around for decades to come, well past the magic 2030 date. And new sources of propulsion, technologies just being envisioned now, will emerge to play a role too. Count on it.
Oh, and let’s not forget about our esteemed politicians/hacks. Should they rear their ugly heads and try to “help” whatever’s next, you can be assured that it will be royally screwed up in no time. So, there’s that.
I am closing with the following words from A.A. Milne (“When We Were Very Young”):
Where am I going? I don't quite know.
What does it matter where people go?
Down to the wood where the blue-bells grow –
Anywhere, anywhere. I don't know.
This whole auto circus is definitely going somewhere. Where and when and how remain to be seen.
And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.
Editor's Note: Click on "Next 1 Entries" at the bottom of this page to see previous issues. - WG