By Peter M. DeLorenzo
Detroit. Mr. Zevon’s lyric in our AE Song of the Week got me thinking this morning. Describing this churning, burning, seething cauldron of turmoil that the automobile business has become as the “swirling maelstrom” doesn’t even begin to cover what’s happening right now.
We exist in a maniacally weird limbo where the promise of The Future is couched in boundless superlatives of a Shiny Happy existence filled with evergreen pastures, cobalt blue skies and whisper-jet quiet Battery Electric Vehicles smiling at the planet as they whoosh by. We’re asked to be patient as super-luxury electric vehicles approaching (and exceeding) $200,000 set the tone for what’s to come, even though these vehicles are as remote as super-luxury ICE vehicles are to real-world consumers today.
We’re being asked to get pumped up about an Electrified Future when the infrastructure for on-the-go charging is still sketchy and will likely remain that way for years to come. What about at-home overnight charging? That’s all well and good, of course, unless you live in an apartment building with no access to charging, overnight or otherwise. But wait, won’t people be able to pull up to the many EV charging stations that will replace gasoline stations any minute now? I have a couple of questions about that. Has anyone actually seen an EV charging station of The Future being built in their neighborhood? Has the headlong rush to add EV charging islands at existing gas stations even begun?
So, there’s that. But reading between the lines, there is no question that developments in battery technology and charging are accelerating at a rapid pace. It seems like there is a major “breakthrough” rumored every month, promising unheard-of range and super-accelerated charging times, way beyond anything that exists today. These developments are welcomed and good, of course, and make me believe that a lot of these EV issues will be sorted out, and in a hurry too.
But – and there is always a “but” – the raw material supplies necessary to produce these batteries at the volume levels needed are becoming a major, 24/7 worry. In some cases, nations – hostile or otherwise – are hoarding the raw materials they have on hand, or if they do part with them, they are charging through the nose to hand them over. One area of battery development in response to this situation is to come up with different chemistry less dependent on hard-to-come-by raw materials. This is all well and good, too, but when? And how much? And will this new battery technology originate in the U.S.? All signs suggest that the answer to that last question is “yes,” but the “when” and “how much” are still very much in question.
Oh, and let’s not forget the whole silicon chip shortage, because that’s not going away either. In fact, as I’ve said previously, the chip “thing” is going to last late into 2022, and don’t be surprised if it’s not until mid-2023 that the problem sorts itself out. What about the U.S.-based chip manufacturing facilities promised to alleviate the problem? You know, the solution bandied about by Washington politicos who know absolutely zilch about the car business? Well, how does 2026 sound? Because that is the soonest we’ll even get a whiff of one.
The dealers, who are under the gun, (but then again, they’re always under the gun) have adapted. A least those who survived have. But the chip “thing” has fundamentally changed the way people go about buying/leasing vehicles. The days of deep discounting are over, at least for the foreseeable future. It’s “sticker-plus” and it has rocked the car-buying experience in this country to its core. The new mantra? “Don’t want to pay that? Fine, there are five people behind you who will.”
While this waiting for the Grand Transition to EV Nirvana continues, it’s apparent that ICE-powered vehicles are even more crucial than ever. Why? Because those ICE-powered trucks, SUVs and crossovers (and a few sedans) are where the profits are being generated to sustain the manufacturers through the transition, which realistically will go on well past 2030. Yes, you read that correctly, well past 2030. In fact, 2035 is closer to reality. And even then, I don’t see EVs capturing more than 50 percent of the market at that point. Make no mistake, that is a lot of EVs, but still, this talk of achieving 100 percent EVs like flipping a switch? Nah, it isn’t that simple, and it’s not going to happen that way.
But a hopeful sign? This End of The ICE Age is giving us the greatest automobiles we have ever experienced. GM has three of those outstanding vehicles right now. The Chevrolet Corvette (and Z06) and the Cadillac CT4-V and CT5-V. These are the finest machines ever offered by GM – true milestone machines – and they will remain long-standing tributes to the deep commitment by the True Believers at GM Design, Engineering and Product Development. And make no mistake, GM’s ICE trucks and SUV/crossovers are the finest in the company’s history too.
There are outstanding ICE entries from all over the world as well. From exotic super cars and SUVs to highly-efficient machines with compelling designs and remarkable efficiency. So, there’s that.
But leave it to the True Believers at Stellantis out in Auburn Hills to wave their ICE Freak Flag higher than the rest. Dodge Brand Chief Executive Officer Tim Kuniskis has previewed the brand’s two-year business plan, which he dubbed “Never Lift.” And if you have to ask what that means then you shouldn’t be reading AE. The Dodge Never Lift plan will be news-packed, calling for a minimum of one product – or automotive-enthusiast-related announcement – every three months. “Never Lift” will be provide a 24-month road map to Dodge’s performance future. Yes, “Performance Future.” For the next 24 months at least, Dodge is going to stand on the gas with its ICE muscle cars and plans on announcing performance news every quarter. Operation 25/8 leads the Never Lift launch with a massive eight-week, 25-dream-car giveaway, with details to be released on Nov. 12, 2021. The 25/8 dream-car giveaway will enlist the support of 25 superstars from the worlds of sports, music and automotive, with each offering muscle-car enthusiasts a chance to drive off with the new Dodge of their choosing. Amazon will also take part in the giveaway.
“More than gas, more than batteries, what fuels our run to tomorrow is attitude, a belief that we can always push harder, run faster and flat-out over-deliver on behalf of the brand and the Brotherhood of Muscle,” said Kuniskis. “25/8 recognizes the spirit that makes Dodge, well, Dodge."
Nicely said. But wait, he’s not finished.
According to Kuniskis, Dodge is looking for an “ambassador” of Never Lift who embodies the spirit of the founding Dodge brothers.
“The Dodge brothers were scrappy go-getters. Never content to follow the trends, they were the seekers of a better, faster, more outrageous way of doing things,” said Kuniskis. “And we’re looking to hire someone just like them as an ambassador of Never Lift.” Among the job’s benefits? Kuniskis listed a Hellcat to drive, $150,000 salary, a wardrobe and a business card that carries the title “Chief Donut Maker.” Dodge will provide more details of the Chief Donut Maker program on Jan. 12, 2022. (The line forms to the right.)
There was a lot more to this announcement, including Dodge bringing back “Direct Connection” as the name of its factory-backed performance parts business, and some dealers becoming “Dodge Power Brokers,” but you get the idea. (Dodge also promised an all-electric high-performance car by 2024, but that can wait as far as I’m concerned.)
So, there you have it. We’re bound to exist in this limbo between a rock – ICEs – and the harder-to-get-to place - the promised Magical EV Future – for the rest of the decade, at least.
And I’m fine with that, because I can wait.
And that’s the High-Octane/Electron Truth for this week.
(Stellantis)